Effects of land use/cover change on carbon storage between 2000 and 2040 in the Yellow River Basin, China

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is the primary source of carbon storage changes in the ecosystem. Up to now, there are few studies about the impacts and driving mechanisms of LUCC for carbon storage in the ecosystem at spatial-temporal scales. Characterizing LUCC of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and its role in carbon storage are very important and necessary to elucidate the results of human activities on ecosystems. The policies to address potential future risks should be formulated in advance to achieve effective development. In the paper, we regarded the YRB as the study area, analyzed its LUCC during 2000 to 2020, predicted land use patterns in 2040 under the scenarios of natural trend (NT), ecological degradation (ED), and ecological restoration (ER) using Markov model with Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and quantified carbon storage in the ecosystems over the last 20 years and under future scenarios according to Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The outcome was as follows: (1) During 2000 to 2040, LUCC in the YRB changed markedly, with cropland being transformed into woodland, grassland and built-up land; (2) During 2000 to 2040, carbon storage in the YRB was on an upward trend with a mean annual increase of 1.93x106Mg C, and woodland was the answer to increasing carbon storage, while unused land could induce carbon storage to decrease; (3) Carbon storage in the YRB varied to different degrees under three scenarios, but under the premise of not causing large-scale damage, the conversion of built-up land was an important means of improving carbon storage, greatly enhancing the carbon sequestration efficiency and capacity of the YRB. In conclusion, the future environmental management of the YRB should be continuously oriented to ecological protection and low-carbon development, so that carbon storage in the basin will be able to develop in a benign direction.