Simulacao da qualidade da agua do rio Pardo com incorporacao de analise de incerteza Water quality simulation of Pardo river with incorporation of uncertainty analysis

被引:0
|
作者
Bayer Poton, Izadora Santana [1 ]
Tosta dos Reis, Jose Antonio [1 ]
Almeida, Karinnie Nascimento [1 ]
Rodrigues, Murilo Brazzali [1 ]
Ferreira Mendonca, Antonio Sergio [1 ]
Braga da Silva, Fernando das Gracas [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Fed Espirito Santo, Dept Engn Ambiental, Vitoria, ES, Brazil
[2] Univ Fed Itajuba, Inst Recursos Nat Itajuba MG, Itajuba, MG, Brazil
关键词
mathematical modeling; Monte Carlo method; dissolved oxygen; biochemical oxygen demand; Pardo river; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS; SUPPORT;
D O I
10.1590/S1413-415220220157
中图分类号
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
The main perspective of the present work is the mathematical simulation of dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand transformations in the Pardo River (Espirito Santo, Brazil), considering the incorporation of uncertainty analysis by the Monte Carlo method. For the Monte Carlo method application, hydrodynamic variables, Pardo River initial quality conditions, and effluents and water quality model kinetic constants were randomly generated with the aid of Normal and Uniform probability distributions. The use of each probability distribution involved performing 1,000 (one thousand) simulations of the dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand profiles. The simulation results indicated that, for the studied watercourse, the minimum dissolved oxygen concentrations varied predominantly between 6.0 and 6.5 mg.L-1 and, in none of the simulations, did they present lower values to the environmental quality standard. biochemical oxygen demand concentrations, in turn, remained above the maximum environmental quality standard in the Pardo River largest intermediate portion, with maximum values between 16.0 and 17.7 mg.L-1. The use of different probability distributions for the random generation of hydrodynamic variables, kinetic constants, and water quality concentrations parameters did not produce variations considered relevant when analyzing the frequency of critical concentrations of simulated water quality parameters.
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页码:263 / 271
页数:9
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