Application of Monte Carlo simulation for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks assessment through multi-exposure pathways of heavy metals of river water and sediment, India

Heavy metal contamination has severe detrimental impacts on the entire river ecosystem's quality and causes potential risks to human health. An integrated approach comprising deterministic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo simulation) models with sensitivity analysis was adopted to determine heavy metals' chronic daily intake (CDI) and their associated health risks from the riverine ecosystem. Both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of water and sediment were estimated through multi-exposure pathways. The analytical results indicated that the concentration patterns of heavy metals in sediment (Fe > Mn > Sr > Zn > Cr > Cu > Cd) were slightly different and higher than in water (Fe > Zn > Cr > Sr > Mn > Cu > Cd). The potential carcinogenic risks of Cr and Cd in sediment (5.06E-02, 5.98E-04) were significantly (p < 0.05) higher than in water (9.08E-04, 8.97E-05). Moreover, 95th percentile values of total cancer risk (TCR) for sediment (1.80E-02, 3.37E-02) were about 22 and 143 times higher than those of water (8.10E-04, 2.36E-04) for adults and children, respectively. The analysis of non-carcinogenic risk revealed a significantly higher overall hazard index (OHI) for both sediment (adults: 1.26E+02, children: 1.11E+03) and water (adults: 3.26E+00, children: 9.85E+00) than the USEPA guidelines (OHI <= 1). The sensitivity analysis identified that the concentration of heavy metals was the most influencing input factor in health risk assessment. Based on the reasonable maximum exposure estimate (RME), the study will be advantageous for researchers, scientists, policymakers, and regulatory authorities to predict and manage human health risks.