Perspective: Flawed assumptions behind analysis of litter decomposition, steady state and fire risks in Australia

Assumptions first made in the 1960's that litter (1) decomposes to completion, (2) accumulates following a negative exponential pattern, (3) reaches a steady state limit and (4) is constant thereafter, remain overwhelmingly used to parameterize models and predict litter mass and fire risk in south-eastern Australian forest and woodlands. None of these assumptions hold. There is no evidence that any Australian forest has attained steady state at any time in the last 60 years, nor that litterfall or litter mass are ever constant on annual scales. Attainment of steady state is improbable given changing climates and fire regimes. Long -term decomposition is poorly predicted by exponential models and is unified with soil formation rather than an isolated process. Australian data reinforce the global decomposition literature and show that litter accumulation can be reliably predicted as a function of time, climate and quality, without need of assumptions. Ensuring public trust requires return to the tenets of science, setting aside of steady state and limit dogma, and replacing outdated and comprehensively falsified models.