Research on economic and social impact of carbon emissions in the construction industry at a regional scale: a case of Shandong, China

To identify the impact of carbon emissions in the construction industry on the society and economy at a regional scale is of great significance for the sustainable development of the construction industry. Taking Shandong, China, as an example, this study uses a process-based carbon emission assessment method to calculate the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Shandong from 2010 to 2020. Based on specific situations at different phases, ten major factors affecting the society and economy have been analyzed and identified. Then, the Seemingly Uncorrelated Regression (SUR) model was used to analyze carbon emissions and economic and social factors at each stage. The results show the following: (1) The overall carbon emissions of the construction industry in Shandong are on an increasing trend, the carbon emission intensity is on a decreasing trend, and the material production and operation stages are the main source of carbon emissions; (2) There is a significant relationship between carbon emissions in the construction phase and all influencing factors, so it should be the main phase for macro-regulation; (3) Unlike in the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model, the error terms of the gross output value of the construction industry and the total turnover of the main building materials equations are independent; however, there is an interaction between the error terms of the remaining equations. The results provide a theoretical reference for governmental departments to set up environmental targets and make policy regulations.