Short-Term and Long-Term Predictions: Is the Green Crab Carcinus maenas a Threat to Antarctica and Southern South America under a Climate-Change Scenario?

Non-native species can have profound implications on the survival of native ones. This is especially true for some invasive crabs, such as the green crab Carcinus maenas, a native species to the Northern Hemisphere that has been introduced into southern Argentina, from where it could expand through Argentina, Chile, and the Antarctic Peninsula. Hence, there is interest in forecasting changes in C. maenas habitat suitability through time to predict if potential future invasions might occur. Here, by using a Species Distribution Model (SDM) approach, we estimated the habitat suitability for C. maenas along southern South America and the Antarctic Peninsula under two future climate-change scenarios. Our results reveal that under current conditions, habitat suitability for C. maenas along the Antarctic Peninsula is null and very restricted in Argentina and Chile. Habitat suitability along the Antarctic Peninsula remained null in the short-term (30 years) and long-term future (80 years), despite the climate-change scenario considered. Surprisingly, when considering future conditions, habitat suitability along the coast of Argentina and Chile decreased and became nil for some currently occupied locations. Thus, the SDM results suggest that climate change could have a negative effect on the habitat suitability of C. maenas leading to potential local extinctions.