A dynamic multistate and control model of the COVID-19 pandemic

AimWe specify a multistate dynamic model of COVID-19 states and investigate the efficiency of lockdown policies in a control application.MethodComputational and analytical methods are implemented to indicate parameter sensitivities of the multistate model. An objective function in a control specification is then used to evaluate the cost efficacy of lockdowns to manage the diffusion of infection before the availability of a vaccine.ResultsResults of the control model indicate differences in cost-cost offsets over time in a lockdown under different levels of wage and mortality rates. We show the range of conditions under which cost offsets of a lockdown can exceed costs.ConclusionsLockdowns have been initiated due largely to the headline numbers of mortality rates, "pain and suffering" of those infected, and burdens on health care systems. We show that lockdowns can be cost-efficient over a range of wage and mortality rates provided that they are maintained in place for certain lengths of time. The time intervals we investigate have been demonstrated to be feasible across a wide range of countries.