Effects of urban land intensive use on carbon emissions in China: spatial interaction and multi-mediating effect perspective

Land intensive use is important for sustainable land use while carbon emission is a constraint to achieve carbon neutrality; they are closely related and committed to sustainable socioeconomic development. The spatial interactions and complex mechanisms between them make it difficult to clarify their relationship precisely. This paper combines the spatial Durbin model and mediating effect model to describe the effects of urban land intensive use (ULIU) on carbon emissions (CEs) for 30 provinces in China during 1995-2018. An inverse U-shaped relationship between ULIU and CEs is proved while considering the spatial interaction. All the provincial observed values of ULIU are less than the inflection point of the curve, which means that the improvement of the ULIU will cause more CEs. Meanwhile, ULIU has multi-indirect effects on CEs, with urbanization and industrial structure upgrading playing mediating roles in the mechanism. The spatial spillover effects of CEs per unit area on the neighboring provinces are negative, indicating that the interregional influence cannot be ignored. These findings have theoretical and practical significance as they reveal the multi-effects of ULIU on CEs. To realize carbon emission reduction effectively, more attention should be paid to improving the intensity of the urban land and strengthening the regional cooperation.