A large-scale validation study of aircraft noise modeling for airport arrivals

In the U.S., the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) is approved to predict the impacts of aircraft noise and emissions. AEDT's critical role in regulatory compliance and evaluating the environmental impacts of aviation requires asking how accurate are its noise predictions. Previous studies suggest that AEDT's predictions lack desired accuracy. This paper reports on a large-scale study, using 200 000 flight trajectories paired with measured sound levels for arrivals to Runways 28L/28R at San Francisco International Airport, over 12 months. For each flight, two AEDT studies were run, one using the approved mode for regulatory filing and the other using an advanced non-regulatory mode with exact aircraft trajectories. AEDT's per aircraft noise predictions were compared with curated measured sound levels at two locations. On average, AEDT underestimated LAmax by -3.09 dB and SEL by -2.04 dB, combining the results from both AEDT noise-modeling modes. Discrepancies appear to result from limitations in the physical modeling of flight trajectories and noise generation, combined with input data uncertainties (aircraft weight, airspeed, thrust, and lift configuration) and atmospheric conditions.