The validity of self-rated alcohol susceptibility in predicting alcohol use in early adolescents in Latin America

Background: The measurement of substance use susceptibility was first conceived as part of the preparatory stage that precedes youth smoking initiation and is defined as the lack of a firm commitment not to smoke in the future. Despite being a consistent and validated predictor of smoking initiation, there has been little research on whether susceptibility can predict alcohol use. This study assessed the validity of an adapted alcohol susceptibility measure to predict alcohol consumption among early adolescent students in Argentina and Mexico who had not previously consumed alcohol.Methods: A school-based longitudinal study was conducted among first-year students in 33 secondary schools in Argentina and 57 in Mexico. The baseline sample included 1504 never-drinker adolescents in Argentina and 5264 in Mexico, of whom 1055 and 3540, respectively, completed a follow-up survey one and a half years later. Logistic regression with school as a random effect was used to estimate the adjusted odds ratios for the transitions from never-drinker to ever-drinker, current drinker, and binge drinker.Results: At baseline, 34% and 23.6% of adolescent never-users in Argentina and Mexico, respectively, were susceptible to alcohol. After controlling for other known predictors of alcohol use initiation, alcohol susceptibility was positively associated with ever-drinking (OR = 3.23, 95% CI 2.38-4.36 in Argentina, OR = 1.73, 95% CI 1.43-2.10 in Mexico), current drinking (OR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.71-3.4 in Argentina, OR = 1.77, 95% CI 1.37-2.28 in Mexico), and binge drinking (OR = 2.27, 95% CI 1.78-2.91 in Argentina, OR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.32-1.99 in Mexico).Conclusions: The susceptibility measure adapted for use with alcohol appears valid for identifying individuals or groups at risk of drinking initiation and problematic drinking among early adolescents in Argentina and Mexico.