Achieving measles elimination and emerging modified measles: Longitudinal measles epidemiology from 1982 to 2021 in Osaka Prefecture, Japan

Background: Measles is a contagious viral disease causing infant mortality in developing countries without vaccination programs. In Japan, measles vaccination was launched in 1978, surveillance commenced in 1981, and elimination was achieved in 2015. This was due to improved, legally required surveillance methods and vaccine programs. Methods: The data sets of sentinel (1982-2007) and notifiable (2008-2021) disease surveillance, as well as the vaccination coverage, detected genotypes, and seroepidemiology during the study period in Osaka Prefecture, were analyzed. Additionally, the trend under the current notifiable surveillance was compared before (2008-2014) and after (2015-2021) measles elimination. Results: Under sentinel surveillance, 51,107 cases were reported, predominantly infants aged 1-4 years (63.6 %). Under notifiable disease surveillance, the 781 patients were predominantly in their 20s-30s (43.7 %). From 2000, the age of the major susceptible group increased due to the rise in vaccination coverage, which exceeded 95% for the first dose in 1998 and 90% for the second dose in 2009. Consistent with these data, seroprevalence exceeded 95% in 2011. However, the geometric mean of the antibody titer showed a decreasing trend with a falling number of patients. Compared with before and after measles elimination, the number of modified measles cases increased from 10.1% to 48.2%. During the study period, 398 strains comprising eight genotypes were identified, and the dominant type changed over time. After measles elimination, genotypes B3 and D8, derived from imported cases, became predominant. Conclusions: Improved vaccination coverage and surveillance reduced measles cases and increased herd immu-nity. However, the lack of a booster effect due to the low incidence of measles caused waning antibody titers despite high seroprevalence, which may contribute to the rising rate of vaccine failures causing modified measles. Careful monitoring of measles incidence and herd immunity are necessary for measles eradication.