Understanding Prognosis: Discrepancy in Prognosis Estimates Between Patients With Cirrhosis and their Hepatologists

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients require a clear understanding of their prognosis to make informed decisions about their care. The aim of this study was to compare the perceptions of prognosis and transplant candidacy between patients with cirrhosis and their hepatologists. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and their hepatologists were prospectively recruited at an urban liver transplant center. Patients and hepatologists were asked about transplant candidacy and about how many years patients would live with and without a liver transplant. Agreement between patients and hepatologists was assessed with the weighted kappa statistic. Associations between patient/hepatologists' prognostic estimates and those predicted by patients' Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score were estimated using the Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Seventy patients and 6 hepatologists were enrolled in the study. Patients were predominantly male (61.4%) and white (68.6%), with a mean MELD-Na score of 19 - 9. There was no-slight agreement between patients and hepatologists regarding survival without and with a liver transplant (kappa=0.1 and 0.2, respectively), with patients more optimistic than their hepatologists. There was greater agreement between patients and hepatologists about transplant candidacy (kappa=0.6). There was a negligible association between MELD-Na and patient estimates (r=-0.24, P=.05) but a moderate association between MELD-Na and hepatologist estimates (r=-0.51, P<.001), with higher MELD-Na scores associated with lower predicted survival. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with cirrhosis are more optimistic and less accurate in their predictions of survival compared with hepatologists, although they are more realistic about their transplant candidacy. Aligning patient and provider expectations may increase the likelihood that patients receive value-concordant care.