Oil spill trajectory modeling and validation: case study on a marine incident at Adriatic Sea

According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) (2010), more than one million metric tons of oil are spilled into oceans annually, resulting in severe and far-reaching consequences for marine ecosystems. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to offer insights into enhancing environmental protection and preparedness for more efficient responses. This is achieved by studying simulations of oil spill trajectories presented in 18 different scenarios within the semi-enclosed coastal basin of Kastela Bay in the Adriatic Sea. Given the sensitivity of this area, incident simulations were generated using the Potential Incident Simulation, Control, and Evaluation System (PISCES II) simulator. Three worst-case scenarios are introduced in order to give an insight into the potential incident impact on the marine environment. Furthermore, observing through forward stepwise generated multiple regression model (F=2.734; R=0.517; p=0.097) variable height of wave was identified as a statistically significant predictor of speed at which oils spread in (b=1.965; p=0.047). In addition, the non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test was applied for the validity of the calculated regression model assessment. The paper provides insights into linear relations between the most appropriate predictor (height of wave) and criterion (speed at which oil spreads), and it can be used as a starting point for risk assessment analyses of the incidents. Furthermore, the results of this research provide a possibility to ensure that safe and effective preparedness measures are set in place. Last but not least, results are implicitly pointing to the benefits and sufficiency of equipment for responding to real-life oil pollution incidents.