Development of regression models to forecast the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in the BRICS and MINT countries

被引:179
作者
Karakurt, Izzet [1 ]
Aydin, Gokhan [1 ]
机构
[1] Karadeniz Tech Univ, Min Engn Dept, Energy Planning & Modelling Res Grp, Trabzon, Turkiye
关键词
Energy; Fossil fuels; CO2; emissions; BRICS and MINT Countries; Models; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION; OIL CONSUMPTION; NATURAL-GAS; CHINA; INDIA; PREDICTION; NUCLEAR; RUSSIA;
D O I
10.1016/j.energy.2022.125650
中图分类号
O414.1 [热力学];
学科分类号
摘要
This study focuses to propose regression models to forecast the fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions in the BRICS (Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey) countries. In order to get an overview, a short review on the current status of the fossil fuel use and FFCO2 emissions is firstly presented. Then, statistical regression models are developed and verified by various statistical tests including coefficient of determination, F-and t-tests, and the actual versus predicted data plots. Additionally, the most significant variables affecting the FFCO2 emissions of the BRICS and MINT countries are statistically determined. Moreover, the forecasting accuracies and effectiveness of the proposed models are measured using the mean absolute percentage error. Using the proposed models, furthermore, the future FFCO2 emissions of the BRICS and MINT countries are estimated and discussed. The results show that BRICS and MINT countries will come to a position that will guide the world economy in the near future due to their significant superiorities. The modeling results reveal that the proposed models have a strong practical applicability po-tential. Moreover, forecasting results clearly demonstrate that significant increases are expected in the future FFCO2 emissions of the BRICS and MINT countries.
引用
收藏
页数:14
相关论文
共 84 条
[1]   Rebound effect with energy efficiency determinants: a two-stage analysis of residential electricity consumption in Indonesia [J].
Adha, Rishan ;
Hong, Cheng-Yih ;
Firmansyah, M. ;
Paranata, Ade .
SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION, 2021, 28 :556-565
[2]   COMPARING MULTIVARIATE MODELS' FORECASTS OF INFLATION FOR BRICS AND OPEC COUNTRIES [J].
Ajayi, Olaoluwa Vincent .
BUSINESS MANAGEMENT AND EDUCATION, 2019, 17 (02) :152-172
[3]  
Akin F, 2018, J FINANCE LETT, V110, P71
[4]   Investigating, forecasting and proposing emission mitigation pathways for CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion only: A case study of selected countries [J].
Ameyaw, Bismark ;
Yao, Li ;
Oppong, Amos ;
Agyeman, Joy Korang .
ENERGY POLICY, 2019, 130 :7-21
[5]  
[Anonymous], 2019, BP STAT REV WORLD EN, DOI DOI 10.1016/J.ENPOL.2018.06.002
[6]  
[Anonymous], 2022, bp Energy Outlook: 2022 edition
[7]   Investigation of the surface roughness of rocks sawn by diamond sawblades [J].
Aydin, Gokhan ;
Karakurt, Izzet ;
Aydiner, Kerim .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ROCK MECHANICS AND MINING SCIENCES, 2013, 61 :171-182
[8]  
Azadeh A, 2010, J SCI IND RES INDIA, V69, P194
[9]   CO2 emissions: A quantitative analysis among the BRICS nations [J].
Azevedo, Vitor G. ;
Sartori, Simone ;
Campos, Lucila M. S. .
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS, 2018, 81 :107-115
[10]   Do nuclear and renewable energy improve the environment? Empirical evidence from the United States [J].
Baek, Jungho .
ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS, 2016, 66 :352-356