Inversion of 137Cs emissions following the fukushima accident with adaptive release recovery for temporal absences of observations

Temporal absences in observation records lead to release losses during the source term inversions of atmospheric radionuclide emissions. Consequently, objectively-estimated source terms for the Fukushima accident contain fewer release details and present large discrepancies when compared with the expert-judged one. This paper describes an objective method that can adaptively recover the missing releases caused by the temporal absences of observations. The proposed method assumes that the accident releases of radionuclides are piecewise-constant and comprise both peaks and constant releases. The missing releases are adaptively recovered as either peaks or constant releases by minimizing the total variation of the estimated source term. The proposed method is applied to the Fukushima accident and evaluated against regional airborne and deposited Cs-137 observations. The results demonstrate that this method effectively recovers the missing releases, producing a source term that matches the timing of both on-site gamma dose rate peaks and accident events. The retrieved source term improves the simulation of air concentrations and reproduces most of the deposition patterns. This is the first time that an objective method has independently reproduced the details in the expert-judged one for the Fukushima accident.