Trait and situation-specific intolerance of uncertainty predict affective symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic, a high-uncertainty situation, presents an ideal opportunity to examine how trait intolerance of uncertainty (IU) and situation-specific IU relate to each other and to mental health outcomes. The current longitudinal study examined the unique associations of trait and COVID-specific IU with general distress (anxiety and depression) and pandemic-specific concerns (pandemic stress and vaccine worry). Methods: A community sample of Florida adults (N = 2152) was surveyed online at three timepoints. They completed measures of trait IU at Wave 1 (April-May 2020) and COVID-specific IU at Wave 2 (May-June 2020). At Wave 3 (December-February 2021), they reported symptoms of depression, anxiety, pandemic stress, and vaccine worry. Results: We used structural equation modeling to test our overall model. Trait IU significantly predicted later COVID-specific IU, however there was no significant effect of trait IU on any outcome measure after accounting for COVID-specific IU. Notably, COVID-specific IU fully mediated the relationship between trait IU and all four symptom measures. Limitations: There were several limitations of the current study, including the use of a community sample and high participant attrition. Conclusions: Results suggest that COVID-specific IU predicts mental health outcomes over and above trait IU, extending the existing literature. These findings indicate that uncertainty may be more aversive when it is related to specific distressing situations, providing guidance for developing more specific and individualized interventions. Idiographic treatments which target situation-specific IU may be more efficacious in reducing affective symptoms and related stress during the COVID-19 pandemic or other similar events.