Attitudes towards immigration and unemployment risk cleavages: Untangling the economically rooted group conflict framework

How do increasing economic risk cleavages amongst natives shape growing negativity towards immigration? Group conflict theory suggests that tension between immigrant and native groups arises as a reaction to the actual or perceived loss of economic privilege by the majority group members. Yet, such an economically rooted formation of sentiments towards immigration is widely debated. This article aims to clarify and more precisely assess the economic threat mechanisms of inter-group conflict, remedying limitations in earlier work. Distinct from the economic threat effects due to immigration, here, I argue and show that being in a relatively worse-off position amongst natives is a separate channel increasing adverse reactions to immigration. To examine this relationship, I use high-quality longitudinal household panel data Socio-Economic Panel from Germany from 1999 to 2016. Results from the German case provide evidence suggesting that even when controlling for exposure to a higher risk of being substituted by immigrants and a higher risk of being fiscally burdened by foreigners, there is a robust effect of exposure to increasingly higher unemployment risks compared to other native workers in the host society raises adversity towards immigration. This effect is independent of geographic differences and actual exposure to the economic impact of immigrants. Overall, this article reconciles existing accounts of economically motivated group conflict. It brings forward a comprehensive theoretical framework and empirical evidence to the study of worsening reactions towards immigration in these past decades.