Cross-Attribute Level Effects Models for Modeling Modified 5-Level Version of EQ-5D Health State Values: Is Less Still More?

Objectives: Cross-attribute level effects (CALE) model has demonstrated better predictive accuracy for out-of-sample health states than the conventional additive main-effects model in cross-validation analysis of the 5-level version of EQ-5D (EQ-5D-5L) composite time trade-off (cTTO) datasets. In this study, we aimed to further test the performance of CALE model using a different design and modified EQ-5D-5L states.Methods: A total of 29 EQ-5D-5L self-care bolt-off states, 30 EQ-5D-5L states, and 31 EQ-5D-5L vision bolt-on states were selected from the same orthogonal array. A total of 600 university students were interviewed face-to-face to value a subset of these health states using the cTTO method. For each type of health state, we fitted both the conventional main-effects model and the CALE model. Predictive accuracy was assessed in a series of cross-validation analysis using the leave-one-state-out method.Results: Overall, the CALE model outperformed the conventional model for each of the 3 types of health states in predicting the cTTO values of out-of-sample health states. The prediction accuracy of using the CALE model improved with the number of dimensions in health states, for example, the MAE decreased about 24%, 67%, and 77% for the EQ-5D-5L self-care bolt-off, EQ-5D-5L, and EQ-5D-5L vision bolt-on states, respectively, when using CALE models.Conclusion: Our study supported the strengths of the CALE model for modelling the utility values of both original and modified EQ-5D-5L health states. Investigators with limited resources may consider using the CALE model to lower the costs for their valuation studies for EQ-5D-5L or similar health state descriptive systems.