Risk factors for late recurrence and postrelapse survival in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER) 2-negative breast cancer after 5 years of endocrine therapy

It is unclear which patients with ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer benefit from extended endocrine therapy beyond 5 years. Prognostic factors for late-recurring breast cancer postrelapse survival have been reported. We retrospectively analyzed data from 892 patients with ER-positive and HER2-negative invasive breast cancer who were disease-free after completing a 5-year adjuvant endocrine therapy. Patients were then classified as high-risk (positive lymph nodes, large tumor size, high tumor grade) or low-risk. High-risk patients were divided into extended endocrine therapy and stop groups. Comparisons were made using propensity score matching, and the benefits of extended endocrine therapy for high-risk patients and prognostic factors for postrelapse survival were assessed. The high- and low-risk groups comprised 444 and 448 patients, respectively. The 10-year distant disease-free survival (DDFS) rates were 96.3 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.912-0.985) and 86.5 % (95 % CI 0.798-0911) in the extended and stop groups, respectively (P = 0.00382). Cox proportional hazards model revealed that extended endocrine therapy promoted greater reduction in distant metastasis risk than 5-year endocrine therapy in high-risk populations (hazard ratio [HR] 0.27; 95 % CI 0.11-0.68; P = 0.0054). Postrelapse survival was significantly different in patients with DDFS >= 7 years (HR 0.24; 95 % CI 0.072-0.81; P = 0.021) and those with better response to first-line treatment (HR 0.072; 95 % CI, 0.058-0.90; P = 0.041). Patients with risk factors for late recurrence should be considered for extended endocrine therapy. Longer DDFS and response to first-line treatment may be a prognostic factor for postrelapse survival after late recurrence.