How to Improve Industrial Green Total Factor Productivity under Dual Carbon Goals? Evidence from China

This paper focuses on the relationship between green credit and industrial green total factor productivity under the dual carbon target. In recent years, weather extremes that break historical extremes have occurred frequently around the world, and the resulting loss of life and property has deepened people's concern about climate change. As a responsible developing country, China has set the goal of reaching peak carbon emissions and reducing carbon intensity by 60-65% by 2030. In this context, based on China's provincial-level data from 2006 to 2019, this paper first measures the growth rate of industrial green total factor productivity using the SBM-ML model, and then analyzes the impact of green credit on industrial green total factor productivity under the double carbon target by constructing the transmission mechanism of the energy consumption structure and the regulation mechanism of environmental regulation on green credit. We then analyze the impact of green credit on industrial green total factor productivity under the dual carbon target by constructing the transmission mechanism of the energy consumption structure and the regulation mechanism of environmental regulation on green credit. We find that green credit can improve the energy consumption structure and thus increase industrial green total factor productivity. In addition, the study finds that the interaction effect of green credit and environmental regulation suppresses the positive impact of green credit on industrial green TFP. This paper provides empirical evidence and policy implications for the orderly promotion of carbon peaking and carbon neutral efforts to effectively improve industrial green total factor productivity and promote high-quality economic development.