A review of artificial intelligence quality in forecasting asset prices

被引:1
作者
Barboza, Flavio [1 ]
Nunes Silva, Geraldo [2 ]
Augusto Fiorucci, Jose [3 ]
机构
[1] Fed Univ Uberlandia UFU, Sch Business & Management, BR-38400902 Uberlandia, MG, Brazil
[2] Sao Paulo State Univ UNESP, Inst Biosci Humanities & Exact Sci, Math Dept, BR-15054000 Sao Jose Do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil
[3] Univ Brasilia UnB, Dept Stat, Campus Darcy Ribeiro, BR-70910900 Brasilia, DF, Brazil
基金
巴西圣保罗研究基金会;
关键词
financial times series; machine learning; MAE; MAPE; RMSE; TIME-SERIES; NEURAL-NETWORKS; FINANCIAL MARKET; RETURNS; MODEL; MACHINE; ARIMA; PREDICTABILITY; REGRESSION; FRAMEWORK;
D O I
10.1002/for.2979
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Researchers and practitioners globally, from a range of perspectives, acknowledge the difficulty in determining the value of a financial asset. This subject is of utmost importance due to the numerous participants involved and its impact on enhancing market structure, function, and efficiency. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of the academic literature to provide insights into the reasoning behind certain conventions adopted in financial value estimation, including the implementation of preprocessing techniques, the selection of relevant inputs, and the assessment of the performance of computational models in predicting asset prices over time. Our analysis, based on 109 studies sourced from 10 databases, reveals that daily forecasts have achieved average error rates of less than 1.5%, while monthly data only attain this level in optimal circumstances. We also discuss the utilization of tools and the integration of hybrid models. Finally, we highlight compelling gaps in the literature that provide avenues for further research.
引用
收藏
页码:1708 / 1728
页数:21
相关论文
共 108 条
  • [81] Rathnayaka R.K. T., 2015, 2015 International Conference on Behavioral, Economic and Socio-cultural Computing (BESC), P54, DOI DOI 10.1109/BESC.2015.7365958
  • [82] Taylor series approximation and unbiased GM(1,1) based hybrid statistical approach for forecasting daily gold price demands
    Rathnayaka, R. M. Kapila Tharanga
    Seneviratna, D. M. K. N.
    [J]. GREY SYSTEMS-THEORY AND APPLICATION, 2019, 9 (01) : 5 - 18
  • [83] An unbiased GM(1,1)-based new hybrid approach for time series forecasting
    Rathnayaka, R. M. Kapila Tharanga
    Seneviratna, D. M. K. N.
    Wei Jianguo
    Arumawadu, Hasitha Indika
    [J]. GREY SYSTEMS-THEORY AND APPLICATION, 2016, 6 (03) : 322 - 340
  • [84] Construction and qualitative assessment of a bibliographic portfolio using the methodology Methodi Ordinatio
    Regiani de Campos, Elaine Aparecida
    Pagani, Regina Negri
    Resende, Luis Mauricio
    Pontes, Joseane
    [J]. SCIENTOMETRICS, 2018, 116 (02) : 815 - 842
  • [85] The versatility of spectrum analysis for forecasting financial time series
    Rostan, Pierre
    Rostan, Alexandra
    [J]. JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 2018, 37 (03) : 327 - 339
  • [86] A hybrid FLANN and adaptive differential evolution model for forecasting of stock market indices
    Rout, Ajit Kumar
    Biswal, Birendra
    Dash, Pradipta Kishore
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF KNOWLEDGE-BASED AND INTELLIGENT ENGINEERING SYSTEMS, 2014, 18 (01) : 23 - 41
  • [87] Selmi N., 2015, Decision Science Letters, V4, P203, DOI [10.5267/j.dsl.2014.12.002, DOI 10.5267/J.DSL.2014.12.002]
  • [88] Senapati M.R, 2015, Int. J. Bus. Forecast. Market. Intell, V2, P55, DOI [10.1504/ijbfmi.2015.075358, DOI 10.1504/IJBFMI.2015.075358]
  • [89] Adaptive Evolutionary Neural Networks for Forecasting and Trading without a Data-Snooping Bias
    Sermpinis, Georgios
    Verousis, Thanos
    Theofilatos, Konstantinos
    [J]. JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 2016, 35 (01) : 1 - 12
  • [90] SHARMA H., 2016, Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, V20, P1