Building carbon peak scenario prediction in China using system dynamics model

As the issue of global climate change caused by carbon emissions is of great concern, China has proposed achieving its achieve carbon peak goal by 2030. Building carbon emissions account for approximately 50% of China's total carbon emissions. It is crucial to study the time and values of building carbon peaks. In this paper, based on a system dynamics model, logarithmic mean Divisia index model and Monte Carlo simulation, we predict the building carbon peak in China. The following conclusions are obtained: 1) in the baseline scenario, China's building carbon emissions will peak at 5,427 million tons in 2027. In the high-speed development scenario, China's building carbon emissions will peak at 6,298 million tons in 2032. In the coordinated development scenario, the green development scenario, the low-carbon development scenario, and the low-speed development scenario, the peak occurs in 2030 at 5,972 million tons, 5,991 million tons, 5,657 million tons, and 6,329 million tons, respectively. 2) According to the comprehensive simulation, China's building carbon emissions will reach the peak in 2030, with an 80% probability of reaching 5,729-6,171 million tons.