Probabilistic analysis of irregular wave runup on a fixed and truncated surface-piercing vertical cylinder

This paper presents a numerical and experimental study on irregular wave runup on a fixed and truncated surface-piercing vertical cylinder. The numerical model was set up based on the incompressible two-phase flow solver in the open-source toolbox OpenFOAM. The model was successfully validated against the experimental data on both regular and irregular incident wave and wave runup. We analyse the characteristics of the runup spectrum against different kpHs and kpD, where kp is the wave number at peak frequency, Hs is the significant wave height and D is the diameter of the cylinder. A new method is proposed to predict the distribution of runup height. In this method, the average height of the highest one-third of all wave runup R1/3 is calculated based on the expansion of an empirical formula proposed in Cao et al., (2017). Then the non-dimensional runup height R/R1/3 is fitted into a two-parameter Weibull distribution, where the shape parameter and scale parameter are provided as a function of kpHs and kpD based on the interpolation of the experimental and numerical data. Based on the fitted Weibull distribution, the runup height at any cumulative probability can be determined. This newly proposed method is validated against the numerical and experimental data on the 2% excess wave runup height R2%, and the deviations are found to be within +/- 15% for most of the cases. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to demonstrate that the model uncertainty is within 15%.