Simulation of land use/cover dynamics in the Yayo coffee Forest biosphere reserve, southwestern Ethiopia

Successful implementation of natural resource planning and land management systems requires understanding of how land use and land cover (LULC) have changed in the past and how they will change in the future, taking into account both space and time. The Yayo Coffee Forest Biosphere Reserve (YCFBR), in southwestern Ethiopia, is currently experiencing the consequences of different human actions such as wildfires and the expansion of coffee plantations. Although the Biosphere Reserve (BR) has undergone significant changes and efforts since it was registered by UNESCO in 2010 as a high biodiversity area of international importance, there is still a lack of information about the anticipated changes in LULC in the future. The primary aim of the study is to simulate the potential changes in LULC in the YCFBR area for the upcoming three decades. In this study, we utilized Landsat satellite imagery taken in 1992, 2007, and 2022 for analysis. The findings suggest that the agricultural area is expected to grow from 20.3% in 2022 to 24% in 2052, while the proportion of open forest is predicted to rise from 13.4% in 2022 to 18% in 2052. In addition, there is an anticipated decrease in both high forest and grazing lands. High forest is expected to decline from 50.1% in 2022 to 40% in 2052, while grazing lands are projected to decrease from 8.3% in 2022 to 6% in 2052. Thus, the study revealed a significant shift of grazing land to agriculture and high forest to more open forest types. We recommend a proper land use zoning to prevent further loss of the forest cover due to human activities and also restore the degraded parts of the area.