A global study on decoupling greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural development

Improving food security and achieving sustainable development goals is closely related to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this research, the relationship between agricultural development and GHG emissions was investigated using economic (crop production and gross domestic product (GDP)), social (food security), and environmental (fertilizer and pesticides productivity) indicators. Additionally, two indicators including GHG emissions per unit of agricultural production (GPP) and per unit of GDP (GPG) were presented. The original decoupling elasticity indicator in the agricultural sector was improved by integrating food security, crop production, productivity of fertilizers and pesticides, and GDP. The indices were calculated for developed (DdC), developing (DgC), and least developed countries (LDC) for a 57 year period (1961-2017). In the period, 79%, 26%, and 5% of DdC, DgC, and LDC, respectively, experienced decreasing GHG emissions. However, total GHG emissions approximately doubled, from 4644 to 9719 million tons of CO2 equivalent. The GPP in LDC and DgC was 2.6 and 1.2 times higher than that in DdC, respectively. During the study period, fertilizer productivity, pesticide productivity, and food security increased by 10.9%, 10.1%, and 7%. About 65% of DdC were in a process of effectively decoupling, while DgC and LDC were under unfavorable decoupling. The results indicated that food security programs, especially in DgC and LDC, must be quickly adapted to environmental sustainability in order to reduce the amount of GHG emission and ensure the achievement of the goals stipulated in the Paris Agreement on climate change.