Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of Water Service Sustainability Index

This paper presents the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the Water Service Sustainability Index (WSSI) based on the application of the WSSI in the Mvila Division, Southern Region of Cameroon. The purpose was to examine how the weighting scheme and aggregation method affect the final index. The methodological approach used was based on Monte Carlo simulations and the Spearman correlation method. The results show that the final percentage of uncertainty for WSSI, calculated using the propagation of error method, is 6.33%. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that self-financing capacity has produced the highest correlation coefficient (0.71), while the formalization of contracts produced the lowest correlation (0.019). The sensitivity analysis also shows that the final index values of WSSI are more sensitive to changes in the aggregation method than to changes in the weighting scheme. Hence, for future use of WSSI, either an equal or non-equal weighting scheme can be used, as it will not have a significant impact on the final index.