Declining cost of renewables and climate change curb the need for African hydropower expansion

被引：22

作者：

Carlino, Angelo ^{[1
,2
,5
]}

Wildemeersch, Matthias ^{[2
,6
]}

Chawanda, Celray James ^{[3
]}

Giuliani, Matteo ^{[1
]}

Sterl, Sebastian ^{[3
,4
]}

Thiery, Wim ^{[3
]}

van Griensven, Ann ^{[3
]}

Castelletti, Andrea ^{[1
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Politecn Milan, Dept Elect Informat & Bioengn, Milan, Italy

[2] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Vienna, Austria

[3] Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Brussels, Belgium

[4] World Resources Inst, Reg Hub Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

[5] Carnegie Inst Sci, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA USA

[6] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England

来源：

SCIENCE | 2023年 / 381卷 / 6658期

关键词：

LARGE DAMS; ENERGY; IMPACTS; NEXUS; CONNECTIVITY; OVERRUNS; BASE;

D O I：

10.1126/science.adf5848

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Across continental Africa, more than 300 new hydropower projects are under consideration to meet the future energy demand that is expected based on the growing population and increasing energy access. Yet large uncertainties associated with hydroclimatic and socioeconomic changes challenge hydropower planning. In this work, we show that only 40 to 68% of the candidate hydropower capacity in Africa is economically attractive. By analyzing the African energy systems' development from 2020 to 2050 for different scenarios of energy demand, land-use change, and climate impacts on water availability, we find that wind and solar outcompete hydropower by 2030. An additional 1.8 to 4% increase in annual continental investment ensures reliability against future hydroclimatic variability. However, cooperation between countries is needed to overcome the divergent spatial distribution of investment costs and potential energy deficits.

引用

页码：645 / +

页数：8

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