Global projections of flash drought show increased risk in a warming climate

被引：92

作者：

Christian, Jordan I. ^{[1
]}

Martin, Elinor R. ^{[1
]}

Basara, Jeffrey B. ^{[1
,2
]}

Furtado, Jason C. ^{[1
]}

Otkin, Jason A. ^{[3
]}

Lowman, Lauren E. L. ^{[4
]}

Hunt, Eric D. ^{[5
]}

Mishra, Vimal ^{[6
,7
]}

Xiao, Xiangming ^{[8
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA

[2] Univ Oklahoma, Sch Civil Engn & Environm Sci, Norman, OK USA

[3] Univ Wisconsin Madison, Cooperat Inst Meteorol Satellite Studies, Space Sci & Engn Ctr, Madison, WI USA

[4] Wake Forest Univ, Dept Engn, Winston Salem, NC USA

[5] Univ Nebraska Lincoln, Sch Nat Resources, Lincoln, NE USA

[6] Indian Inst Technol IIT, Civil Engn, Gandhinagar, India

[7] Indian Inst Technol IIT, Earth Sci, Gandhinagar, India

[8] Univ Oklahoma, Ctr Spatial Anal, Dept Microbiol & Plant Biol, Norman, OK USA

来源：

COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | 2023年 / 4卷 / 01期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; LAND-COVER CHANGE; VEGETATION CONDITIONS; SOIL-MOISTURE; HEAT-WAVE; FOOD; DEMAND; ONSET; IDENTIFICATION; VARIABILITY;

D O I：

10.1038/s43247-023-00826-1

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Flash droughts are projected to become more frequent under all global warming scenarios, with flash drought risk over croplands increasing particularly sharply over Europe and the US, according to analyses of climate model simulations. Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have substantial impact on many socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. However, potential changes to flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations. We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage. Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America (change in annual risk from 32% in 2015 to 49% in 2100) and Europe (32% to 53%) in the most extreme emissions scenario. Following low-end and medium scenarios compared to high-end scenarios indicates a notable reduction in annual flash drought risk over cropland.

引用

页数：10

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