The causal effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on natural gas prices in different markets

This paper utilizes a DID variant method to analyse the causal impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on natural gas prices across various markets. Findings show that average gas prices rose by 12.74, 11.55, 11.24, and 1.18 ($/mmbtu) in key markets such as the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), National Balancing Point (NBP), Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), and Henry Hub (HH), respectively. Moreover, European and Asian markets (TTF, NBP, JKM) are more sensitive to the conflict compared to the U.S. market (HH), displaying significant differences. Notably, the most substantial impact is observed in the European market (TTF), likely due to Europe's reliance on Russian natural gas.