Development and Validation of a Concise Objectifiable Risk Evaluation Score for Non-Relapse Mortality after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

We aimed to develop a concise objectifiable risk evaluation (CORE) tool for predicting non-relapse mortality (NRM) and overall survival (OS) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HCT). A total of 1120 adult patients who had undergone allo-HCT at our center between 2013 and 2020 were divided into training, first, and second validation cohorts. Objectifiable, patient-related factors impacting NRM in univariate and multivariate analyses were: serum albumin, serum creatinine, serum C-reactive protein (CRP), heart function (LVEF), lung function (VC, FEV1), and patient age. Hazard ratios were assigned points (0-3) based on their impact on NRM and summed to the individual CORE HCT score. The CORE HCT score stratified patients into three distinct low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups with two-year NRM rates of 9%, 22%, and 46%, respectively, and OS rates of 73%, 55%, and 35%, respectively (p < 0.001). These findings were confirmed in a first and a second recently treated validation cohort. Importantly, the CORE HCT score remained informative across various conditioning intensities, disease-specific subgroups, and donor types, but did not impact relapse incidence. A comparison of CORE HCT vs. HCT Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI) in the second validation cohort revealed better performance of the CORE HCT score with c-statistics for NRM and OS of 0.666 (SE 0.05, p = 0.001) and 0.675 (SE 0.039, p < 0.001) vs. 0.431 (SE 0.057, p = 0.223) and 0.535 (SE 0.042, p = 0.411), respectively. The CORE HCT score is a concise and objectifiable risk evaluation tool for adult patients undergoing allo-HCT for malignant disease. External multicenter validation is underway.