Evolutionary game analysis of prefabricated buildings adoption under carbon emission trading scheme

Prefabricated buildings (PBs) have attracted significant attention in the global construction field due to their remarkable environmental and social benefits. How to internalize the carbon emission reduction benefits brought by PBs into economic benefits, and then transform the PB promotion from government departments or stateowned enterprises to the whole market is an urgent problem to be solved. To find a market-oriented tool for internalizing the carbon emission reduction benefits, and to explore the impact of the current prevailing carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) on the construction industry, this study establishes a tripartite evolutionary game model for PB adoption and simulates the dynamic strategy evolution of the government and heterogeneous developers through numerical simulation. Findings indicate that low-carbon market demand, low-carbon synergy and carbon price have a positive impact on PB adoption. Meanwhile, it is recommended to include the construction industry in the ETS when carbon prices reach 110 RMB/t. Under the ETS, while the government could eliminate subsidies for PBs to alleviate financial pressure, the behavior of developers participating in the ETS needs to be monitored. Research findings provide insights for developers to participate in carbon trading markets and for governments to develop carbon trading mechanisms applicable to PBs.