Will climate affect the establishment and efficacy of Agnippe sp. #1 (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), a promising biological control agent of Mesquite in South Africa?

Several spiny leguminous tree species within the genus Neltuma Raf. (formerly Prosopis L.) (Fabaceae) occur as widespread invasive alien plants in South Africa, exerting severe negative socio-economic and ecological impacts. Given these impacts, South Africa recently released the leaf-tying moth Agnippe sp. #1 (syn. Evippe sp. #1) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) as a biological control agent against invasive Neltuma species in 2021. The widespread invasion of Neltuma spp. across a vast and climatically diverse range of South Africa has led to concerns regarding the establishment and impact of the agent. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the constraints posed by climate to the potential establishment and efficacy of Agnippe sp. #1 using both climatic matching (CLIMEX) and thermal-physiology assessments. Climatic analyses revealed relatively high (71%) and moderate (66%) matches of South Africa to the native (Argentina) and introduced (Australia) ranges of Agnippe sp. #1 respectively. Thermal assessments of Agnippe sp. #1, particularly the 4(th) instar larvae, determined a CTmin = 0.9 +/- 0.3 degrees C and LLT50 = -11.1 +/- 0.4 degrees C, which suggest the moth is suited mainly to warmer regions of South Africa. Overall, these assessments propose that the establishment and performance of Agnippe sp. #1 is likely to be constrained by climate in parts of South Africa, particularly within the cold semi-arid and temperate provinces of the country. Promisingly, these climatic comparisons suggest that Agnippe sp. #1 may become more widely established in the hottest parts of the Northern Cape province, which remains a major biological control target region for Mesquite in South Africa.