Significance of Hyperhomocysteinemia in Immediate As Well As Long-Term Health Risk/s in Women with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: a Probabilistic Model Using Dynamic Bayesian Network Analysis

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a heterogeneous entity comprising broad spectra of ovarian disorders with trademark features of metabolic syndrome like insulin resistance, obesity, and dyslipidaemia to name a few. Hyperhomocysteinemia, an independent risk factor of metabolic syndrome, has been suggested as a causative factor in spontaneous miscarriage in PCOS. However, it is yet to be resolved whether hyperhomocysteinemia has a contributory role in the pathogenesis or could direct long-term sequences of the syndrome. A total of 2355 women with history of one or more first trimester abortions were screened and 1539 were selected for the study. Selected patients were initially divided by the presence or absence of PCOS, while subsequent stratification was based on hyperhomocysteinemia, insulin resistance, and/or obesity. The miscarriage population/s was mostly represented by hyperhomocysteinemia in both the cohorts (PCOS: 69.08% vs. non-PCOS: 56.68%). ROC-AUC values suggest increased predisposition of hyperhomocysteinemia-mediated miscarriage (hyperhomocysteinemia: 0.778; insulin resistance: 0.601; BMI: 0.548). A probabilistic causal model was designed using dynamic Bayesian network to evaluate the time-series data points before, during, and after pregnancy which revealed a possibility of 32.24% (n = 79) of PCOS cohort developing hypertension, 26.94% (n = 66) of onset of diabetes and 4.49% cardiovascular disease 3 years following pregnancy. We conclude hyperhomocysteinemia may possibly contribute to spontaneous miscarriage and related to metabolic derailments later in life.