Social Media Metrics as Predictors of Publishers' Website Traffic

The relationship between legacy media and social media has become a crucial topic in the discussions about new media. The debate intensified after Facebook announced a reduction in news posts in user timelines in 2018. In the era of the "Like economy", social media holds significant economic value, prompting media outlets to adopt a "let's try and see" approach to reach new audiences and increase their online advertising share. The present study, based on a large-scale survey of 50 publishers' websites, Facebook pages, and Twitter accounts, deepens our understanding of the relationship between legacy and social media as indicators of audience feedback. Through the lens of network gatekeeping and reciprocal journalism theories, it contributes to the development of new evaluation tools that predict publishers' website traffic based on social media metrics. Results show that Facebook and Twitter metrics can predict publishers' website traffic indicators at a rate exceeding 60%. This study underscores the importance of social media metrics in evaluating media practices and the need to shift research toward specific indicators to understand the relationship between legacy and social media.