Evaluation of Cumulus and Microphysical Parameterization Schemes of the WRF Model for Precipitation Prediction in the Paraíba do Sul River Basin, Southeastern Brazil

Three cumulus and five microphysics parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) are the basis for simulating ten specific meteorological events of the Paraiba do Sul River Basin (PSRB) in Southeast Brazil. The cases studied are frontal wave systems, thermodynamic instability, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Each parameterization combination generated 15 simulations for each event, resulting in 150 tests. The primary domain has a horizontal resolution of 8.0 km and the nested 2.6 km resolution. Three analysis tools underlie the study: (i) punctual verification of the first 24 h of precipitation forecast, using the Taylor diagram; (ii) verification of the prediction of precipitation using categorical binary variable and (iii) the Model ' s ability to reproduce patterns of the spatial distribution of precipitation. The Taylor diagram suggests that the combination of the Morrison Double moment and Multiscale Kain-Fritsch schemes produce the best results. The categorical verification indicates that, for dynamic/convective events, the Morrison Double moment and Multiscale Kain-Fritsch and WRF Double Moment 6-class sets showed the best indices. Some configurations presented reliable results for exclusively convective events, and WRF Single-moment 6-class and Grell-Freitas Ensemble is the best combination. The Morrison Double moment and Multiscale Kain-Fritsch parameterizations yielded the best performance for the spatial distribution. Overall, the schemes tested perform better for the upstream region, i.e., the area of greater water uptake for the basin.