Carbon Emission Growth Mechanism and Trend Forecast in Baotou Based on Production-Living-Ecological Space

Taking Baotou city as an example, we calculate carbon emissions and carbon sinks in the "Production-living- ecological space" from 2005 to 2021, and use the STIRPAT model and GM(1,1) model to analyse and forecast the factors influencing carbon emissions and carbon emissions in the next ten years. The results show that (1) the carbon emission reduction strategies for the production, living and ecological spaces of Baotou City were implemented from 2005 to 2011. The results show that: (1) from 2005 to 2021, the total carbon emissions in Baotou City increased by 103,643,100t, with a 3.2-fold increase in total carbon emissions and an average annual growth rate of 7.92%. Production space has the highest contribution to the total carbon emission, and the amount of carbon sink in ecological space is small compared to the total carbon emission. (2) According to the results of the STIRPAT model, the total population, GDP per capita, energy intensity, urbanization rate, the proportion of secondary industry and total carbon emissions in Baotou are synergistic, while the proportion of tertiary industry and total carbon emissions are antagonistic. (3) According to the prediction results of the GM(1,1) model, the total carbon emissions in Baotou will increase from 145,102,300 t to 207,230,500 t in the period of 2022-2031, which shows that the overall carbon emissions in Baotou are still on a growing trend, but the trend is gradually slowing down. Finally, on the basis of the previous study, carbon emission reduction suggestions such as optimising industrial structure and improving the efficiency of agricultural production inputs are put forward.