Sustainable electricity supply for small off-grid communities in Colombia: A system dynamics approach

Colombia, like many other low and middle-income countries, faces an electricity access deficit. Even where access is available, many off-grid communities are only provided with a few hours of service, typically using diesel, which is expensive and polluting. Using a system dynamics model, this paper investigates how a sustainable and durable electricity supply can be provided in off-grid communities in Colombia. The scenarios examined draw on two government funds that have been established to: deliver the infrastructure and provide subsidies for electricity supply. The results demonstrate that a transition from diesel to renewables is not only possible but also economically viable and desirable. The simulations also show that in order to make the best use of limited government funding for electrification, the transition from diesel to renewables should begin as soon as possible and be accompanied by a zero-diesel policy by 2040. Furthermore, the model highlights that electricity systems should be designed to enable gradual growth in demand - driven by socio-economic development and productive uses. Given the imperative to provide a sustainable and durable electricity supply to off-grid communities, this paper provides insights into how this can be achieved while delivering clear benefits for users, utilities and the government.