Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach

被引:16
作者
Bosela, Michal [1 ,2 ]
Rubio-Cuadrado, Alvaro [1 ,3 ]
Marcis, Peter [1 ,2 ]
Merganicova, Katarina [4 ,23 ]
Fleischer, Peter, Jr. [1 ,5 ]
Forrester, David I. [6 ]
Uhl, Enno [7 ]
Avdagic, Admir [8 ]
Bellan, Michal [9 ]
Bielak, Kamil [10 ]
Bravo, Felipe [11 ]
Coll, Lluis [12 ]
Cseke, Klara [13 ]
del Rio, Miren [14 ]
Dinca, Lucian [15 ]
Dobor, Laura
Drozdowski, Stanislaw
Giammarchi, Francesco [16 ]
Gomoryova, Erika [1 ]
Ibrahimspahic, Aida
Kasanin-Grubin, Milica [17 ]
Klopcic, Matija [18 ]
Kurylyak, Viktor [19 ]
Montes, Fernando [14 ]
Pach, Maciej [20 ]
Ruiz-Peinado, Ricardo [14 ]
Skrzyszewski, Jerzy [20 ]
Stajic, Branko [21 ]
Stojanovic, Dejan [22 ]
Svoboda, Miroslav [23 ]
Tonon, Giustino [16 ]
Versace, Soraya [24 ]
Mitrovic, Suzana [25 ]
Zlatanov, Tzvetan [26 ]
Pretzsch, Hans
Tognetti, Roberto [24 ]
机构
[1] Tech Univ Zvolen, TG Masaryka 24, Zvolen 96001, Slovakia
[2] Natl Forest Ctr, TG Masaryka 22, Zvolen 96001, Slovakia
[3] Univ Politecn Madrid, Escuela Tecn Super Ingn Montes Forestal & Medio N, Dept Sistemas & Recursos Nat, Ciudad Univ S-N, Madrid 28040, Spain
[4] Slovak Acad Sci, Inst Landscape Ecol, POB 254,Stefanikova 3, Bratislava, Slovakia
[5] Adm Tatra Natl Pk, Tatranska Lomnica 05960, Vysoke Tatry, Slovakia
[6] CSIRO Land & Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
[7] Tech Univ Munich, Forest Growth & Yield Sci, TUM Sch Life Sci, Hans Carl von Carlowitz Pl 2, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany
[8] Univ Sarajevo, Dept Forest Management & Urban greenery, Fac Forestry, Sarajevo, Bosnia & Herceg
[9] Mendel Univ Brno, Dept Forest Ecol, Zemedeska 3, Brno 6130, Czech Republic
[10] Warsaw Univ Life Sci, Dept Silviculture, Warsaw, Poland
[11] Univ Valladolid, Inst Univ Invest Gest Forestal Sostenible, IuFOR, Valladolid, Spain
[12] Univ Lleida, Dept Agr & Forest Sci & Engn, JRU CTFC AGROTECNIO, Lleida, Spain
[13] Univ Sopron, Forest Res Inst, Sarvar, Hungary
[14] CSIC, Inst Ciencias Forestales ICIFOR INIA, Madrid, Spain
[15] Natl Inst Res & Dev Forestry Marin Dracea, Voluntari, Romania
[16] Free Univ Bolzano, Fac Sci & Technol, Piazza Univ 1, I-39100 Bolzano, Italy
[17] Univ Belgrade, Inst Chem Technol & Met, Njegoseva 12, Belgrade, Serbia
[18] Univ Ljubljana, Biotech Fac, Dept Forestry & Renewable Forest Resources, Jamnikarjeva 101, Ljubljana 1000, Slovenia
[19] Ukrainian Natl Forestry Univ, Gen Chuprynka Str 103, UA-79057 Lvov, Ukraine
[20] Univ Agr, Fac Forestry, Dept Ecol & Silviculture, Krakow, Poland
[21] Univ Belgrade, Fac Forestry, Dept Forestry & Nat Protect, Belgrade, Serbia
[22] Univ Novi Sad, Inst Lowland Forestry & Environm, Novi Sad, Serbia
[23] Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Forestry & Wood Sci, Prague, Czech Republic
[24] Univ Molise, Dept Agr Environm & Food Sci, Molise, Italy
[25] Inst Forestry, Kneza Viseslava 3, Belgrade 11030, Serbia
[26] Bulgarian Acad Sci, Inst Biodivers & Ecosyst Res, Sofia, Bulgaria
关键词
Dendrochronology; Ecosystem dynamics; European beech; Global climate change; Process-based growth model; Tree growth; WATER-USE EFFICIENCY; BIOME-BGC MODEL; FAGUS-SYLVATICA; CARBON ACCUMULATION; TERRESTRIAL CARBON; FORESTS; STAND; SELECTION; DYNAMICS; 3-PG;
D O I
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164123
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Process-based models and empirical modelling techniques are frequently used to (i) explore the sensitivity of tree growth to environmental variables, and (ii) predict the future growth of trees and forest stands under climate change scenarios. However, modelling approaches substantially influence predictions of the sensitivity of trees to environmen-tal factors. Here, we used tree-ring width (TRW) data from 1630 beech trees from a network of 70 plots established across European mountains to build empirical predictive growth models using various modelling approaches. In addi-tion, we used 3-PG and Biome-BGCMuSo process-based models to compare growth predictions with derived empirical models. Results revealed similar prediction errors (RMSE) across models ranging between 3.71 and 7.54 cm2 of basal area increment (BAI). The models explained most of the variability in BAI ranging from 54 % to 87 %. Selected explan-atory variables (despite being statistically highly significant) and the pattern of the growth sensitivity differed between models substantially. We identified only five factors with the same effect and the same sensitivity pattern in all empir-ical models: tree DBH, competition index, elevation, Gini index of DBH, and soil silt content. However, the sensitivity to most of the climate variables was low and inconsistent among the empirical models. Both empirical and process -based models suggest that beech in European mountains will, on average, likely experience better growth conditions under both 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. The process-based models indicated that beech may grow better across European mountains by 1.05 to 1.4 times in warmer conditions. The empirical models identified several drivers of tree growth that are not included in the current process-based models (e.g., different nutrients) but may have a sub-stantial effect on final results, particularly if they are limiting factors. Hence, future development of process-based models may build upon our findings to increase their ability to correctly capture ecosystem dynamics.
引用
收藏
页数:19
相关论文
共 148 条
[1]  
Allaire J, 2016, TENSORFLOW R INTERFA
[2]  
Almeida AC, 2009, 18TH WORLD IMACS CONGRESS AND MODSIM09 INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON MODELLING AND SIMULATION, P1816
[3]   Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests [J].
Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J. ;
Herrmann, Valentine ;
Rollinson, Christine R. ;
Gonzalez, Bianca ;
Gonzalez-Akre, Erika B. ;
Pederson, Neil ;
Alexander, M. Ross ;
Allen, Craig D. ;
Alfaro-Sanchez, Raquel ;
Awada, Tala ;
Baltzer, Jennifer L. ;
Baker, Patrick J. ;
Birch, Joseph D. ;
Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh ;
Cherubini, Paolo ;
Davies, Stuart J. ;
Dow, Cameron ;
Helcoski, Ryan ;
Kaspar, Jakub ;
Lutz, James A. ;
Margolis, Ellis Q. ;
Maxwell, Justin T. ;
McMahon, Sean M. ;
Piponiot, Camille ;
Russo, Sabrina E. ;
Samonil, Pavel ;
Sniderhan, Anastasia E. ;
Tepley, Alan J. ;
Vasickova, Ivana ;
Vlam, Mart ;
Zuidema, Pieter A. .
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2022, 28 (01) :245-266
[4]  
[Anonymous], 2001, Tree Rings and Climate
[5]   What Is Known About the Management of European Beech Forests Facing Climate Change? A Review [J].
Antonucci, Serena ;
Santopuoli, Giovanni ;
Marchetti, Marco ;
Tognetti, Roberto ;
Chiavetta, Ugo ;
Garfi, Vittorio .
CURRENT FORESTRY REPORTS, 2021, 7 (04) :321-333
[6]  
Ayyadevara V. K., 2018, Pro Machine Learning Algorithms, P117, DOI [DOI 10.1007/978-1-4842-3564-56, 10.1007/978-1-4842-3564-5, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4842-3564-5, 10.1007/978-1-4842-3564-56]
[7]  
Babst F., 2014, NEW PHYTOL
[8]   Twentieth century redistribution in climatic drivers of global tree growth [J].
Babst, Flurin ;
Bouriaud, Olivier ;
Poulter, Benjamin ;
Trouet, Valerie ;
Girardin, Martin P. ;
Frank, David C. .
SCIENCE ADVANCES, 2019, 5 (01)
[9]   A tree-ring perspective on the terrestrial carbon cycle [J].
Babst, Flurin ;
Alexander, M. Ross ;
Szejner, Paul ;
Bouriaud, Olivier ;
Klesse, Stefan ;
Roden, John ;
Ciais, Philippe ;
Poulter, Benjamin ;
Frank, David ;
Moore, David J. P. ;
Trouet, Valerie .
OECOLOGIA, 2014, 176 (02) :307-322
[10]   Toward consistent measurements of carbon accumulation: A multi-site assessment of biomass and basal area increment across Europe [J].
Babst, Flurin ;
Bouriaud, Olivier ;
Alexander, Ross ;
Trouet, Valerie ;
Frank, David .
DENDROCHRONOLOGIA, 2014, 32 (02) :153-161