A national risk analysis model (NRAM) for the assessment of COVID-19 epidemic

被引:1
作者
Deng, Qing [1 ]
Xiao, Xingyu [1 ]
Zhu, Lin [1 ]
Cao, Xue [1 ]
Liu, Kai [1 ]
Zhang, Hui [2 ]
Huang, Lida [2 ]
Yu, Feng [3 ]
Jiang, Huiling [1 ]
Liu, Yi [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Sci & Technol Beijing, Sch Civil & Resource Engn, 30 Xueyuan Rd, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
[2] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Engn Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China
[3] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Int & Publ Affairs, Shanghai, Peoples R China
[4] Peoples Publ Secur Univ China, Sch Publ Secur & Traff Management, 1 Muxidi Nanli, Beijing 100045, Peoples R China
基金
美国国家科学基金会; 国家重点研发计划;
关键词
COVID-19; decision-making; emergency management; NRAM; risk analysis; scenario deduction; BAYESIAN NETWORK; MANAGEMENT; ALGORITHM;
D O I
10.1111/risa.14087
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
COVID-19 has caused a critical health concern and severe economic crisis worldwide. With multiple variants, the epidemic has triggered waves of mass transmission for nearly 3 years. In order to coordinate epidemic control and economic development, it is important to support decision-making on precautions or prevention measures based on the risk analysis for different countries. This study proposes a national risk analysis model (NRAM) combining Bayesian network (BN) with other methods. The model is built and applied through three steps. (1) The key factors affecting the epidemic spreading are identified to form the nodes of BN. Then, each node can be assigned state values after data collection and analysis. (2) The model (NRAM) will be built through the determination of the structure and parameters of the network based on some integrated methods. (3) The model will be applied to scenario deduction and sensitivity analysis to support decision-making in the context of COVID-19. Through the comparison with other models, NRAM shows better performance in the assessment of spreading risk at different countries. Moreover, the model reveals that the higher education level and stricter government measures can achieve better epidemic prevention and control effects. This study provides a new insight into the prevention and control of COVID-19 at the national level.
引用
收藏
页码:1946 / 1961
页数:16
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