Odour discrimination and identification as a biomarker of long-term disability worsening in multiple sclerosis

Background: Odour discrimination and identification (DI) are markers associated with disability worsening and neuroaxonal damage in multiple sclerosis (MS).Objective: The main objective of this research is to investigate whether longitudinal change of DI predicts long-term MS disease course.Methods: This is a 6-year prospective longitudinal study on MS patients at the MS Clinic Innsbruck. Clinical, bi-annual visits assessed patients' history and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score. DI and cognitive function were assessed at baseline (BL), Year 1 (Y1), Year 2 (Y2) and Year 6 (Y6) by the 'Sniffin' Sticks'/Symbol Digit Modalities Test.Results: Around 92 of 139 patients were available for Y6 follow-up. Mean DI scores significantly decreased over time (BL = 27.8, Y1 = 27.5, Y2 = 26.3 and Y6 = 26.3; p < 0.001) and negatively correlated with patients' age (r(s) = -0.120, p = 0.032) and disease duration (r(s) = -0.103, p = 0.041). Multivariable regression analyses revealed that lower absolute DI scores and larger DI score loss over time were associated with higher probability of EDSS worsening (per -1 point: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.40 (1.16-1.68) and 2.34 (1.27-4.21)), progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) (HR = 1.49 (1.20-1.85) and 2.22 (1.33-3.31)) and cognitive deterioration (HR = 1.75 (1.35-2.27) and 4.29 (1.26-2.84)) at Y6, but not with time to first relapse.Conclusion: Odour DI is an irreversible marker of neuroaxonal damage, associated with PIRA, cognitive deterioration and EDSS worsening.