Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response

被引：20

作者：

Cheeseman, Ted ^{[1
,2
]}

Barlow, Jay ^{[3
]}

Acebes, Jo Marie ^{[4
]}

Audley, Katherina ^{[5
]}

Bejder, Lars ^{[6
]}

Birdsall, Caitlin ^{[7
]}

Bracamontes, Olga Solis ^{[8
]}

Bradford, Amanda L. ^{[9
]}

Byington, Josie ^{[10
]}

Calambokidis, John ^{[11
]}

Cartwright, Rachel ^{[12
,13
]}

Cedarleaf, Jen ^{[14
]}

Chavez, Andrea Jacqueline Garcia ^{[5
]}

Currie, Jens ^{[15
]}

De Castro, Rouenne Camille ^{[4
]}

De Weerdt, Joelle ^{[16
,17
]}

Doe, Nicole ^{[7
]}

Doniol-Valcroze, Thomas ^{[18
]}

Dracott, Karina ^{[19
]}

Filatova, Olga ^{[20
]}

Finn, Rachel ^{[21
]}

Flynn, Kiirsten R. ^{[11
]}

Ford, John ^{[18
]}

Frisch-Jordan, Astrid ^{[22
]}

Gabriele, Chris ^{[23
,24
]}

Goodwin, Beth ^{[25
]}

Hayslip, Craig ^{[3
]}

Hildering, Jackie ^{[7
]}

Hill, Marie C. ^{[9
,26
]}

Jacobsen, Jeff K. ^{[27
]}

Jimenez-Lopez, M. Esther ^{[28
]}

Jones, Meagan ^{[29
]}

Kobayashi, Nozomi ^{[30
]}

Lammers, Marc ^{[21
]}

Lyman, Edward ^{[21
]}

Malleson, Mark ^{[31
]}

Mamaev, Evgeny ^{[32
]}

Loustalot, Pamela Martinez ^{[33
]}

Masterman, Annie ^{[34
]}

Matkin, Craig O. ^{[35
]}

McMillan, Christie ^{[7
,18
]}

Moore, Jeff ^{[36
]}

Moran, John ^{[34
]}

Neilson, Janet L. ^{[24
]}

Newell, Hayley ^{[2
]}

Okabe, Haruna ^{[30
]}

Olio, Marilia ^{[2
]}

Ortega-Ortiz, Christian D. ^{[37
]}

Pack, Adam A. ^{[38
,39
]}

Palacios, Daniel M. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Southern Cross Univ, Marine Ecol Res Ctr, Lismore, NSW, Australia

[2] Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA 95062 USA

[3] Oregon State Univ, Marine Mammal Inst, Newport, OR USA

[4] BALYENA ORG, Jagna 6308, Bohol, Philippines

[5] Whales Guerrero, Portland, OR USA

[6] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Hawaii Inst Marine Biol, Marine Mammal Res Program, Kaneohe, HI USA

[7] Marine Educ & Res Soc, Port Mcneill, BC, Canada

[8] Univ Guadalajara, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico

[9] NOAA Fisheries, Pacific Isl Fisheries Sci Ctr, Honolulu, HI USA

[10] Pacific Wildlife Fdn Canada, Port Moody, BC, Canada

[11] Cascadia Res Collect, Olympia, WA 98501 USA

[12] Keiki Kohola Project, Delray Beach, FL USA

[13] Calif State Univ Channel Isl, Camarillo, CA USA

[14] Univ Alaska Southeast, Sitka Campus, Sitka, AK USA

[15] Pacific Whale Fdn, Wailuku, HI USA

[16] Assoc ELI S, Gujan Mestras, France

[17] Vrije Univ, Brussels, Belgium

[18] Pacific Biol Stn, Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, BC, Canada

[19] Ocean Wise, Vancouver, BC, Canada

[20] Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Biol, Odense, Denmark

[21] Hawaiian Isl Humpback Whale Natl Marine Sanctuary, Kihei, HI USA

[22] Ecol & Conservac Ballenas AC, Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico

[23] Hawaii Marine Mammal Consortium, Waimea, HI USA

[24] Glacier Bay Natl Pk & Preserve, Gustavus, AK USA

[25] Eye Whale Marine Mammal Res, Kamuela, HI USA

[26] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Cooperat Inst Marine & Atmospher Res, Res Corp, Honolulu, HI 96848 USA

[27] VE Enterprises, Mckinleyville, CA USA

[28] Univ Autonoma Baja Calif, Dept Acad Ingn Pesquerias, La Paz, Bcs, Mexico

[29] Whale Trust, Puunene, HI USA

[30] Okinawa Churashima Fdn, Motobu, Okinawa, Japan

[31] Ctr Whale Res, Friday Harbour, WA USA

[32] FGBU Gosudarstvennyj Zapovednik Komandorskij, Commander Isl, Commander Isl, Kamchatka Krai, Russia

[33] Univ Autonoma Baja Calif Sur, La Paz, Bcs, Mexico

[34] Alaska Fisheries Sci Ctr, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Auke Bay Labs, NOAA, Juneau, AK USA

[35] North Gulf Ocean Soc, Homer, AK USA

[36] NOAA Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Sci Ctr, La Jolla, CA 92037 USA

[37] Univ Colima, Fac Marine Sci, Colima, Mexico

[38] Univ Hawaii, Dept Psychol, Hilo, HI USA

[39] Dolphin Inst, Hilo, HI USA

[40] Univ Alaska Southeast, Juneau, AK USA

[41] Emmanuel Coll, Boston, MA USA

[42] Murdoch Univ, Ctr Sustainable Aquat Ecosyst, Harry Butler Inst, Perth, WA, Australia

[43] Univ Calif Davis, McCowan Lab, Davis, CA USA

[44] Humpback Whales Salish Sea, Duncan, BC, Canada

[45] Int Whaling Commiss, Impington, England

[46] Alaska Whale Fdn, Petersburg, AK USA

[47] Juneau Flukes, Juneau, AK USA

[48] NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Reg Off, Juneau, AK 99801 USA

[49] Russian Acad Sci, AN Severtsov Inst Ecol & Evolut, Moscow, Russia

[50] Winged Whale Res, Homer, AK USA

来源：

ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE | 2024年 / 11卷 / 02期

关键词：

carrying capacity; marine heatwave; mark-recapture modelling; abundance estimation; climate change; environmental variables; MEGAPTERA-NOVAEANGLIAE; ABUNDANCE; CONSERVATION; FIDELITY; IMPACTS; ECOLOGY; BLUE;

D O I：

10.1098/rsos.231462

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark-recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (+/- 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (+/- 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (+/- 4455) to 26 662 (+/- 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai'i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014-2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.

引用

页数：19

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