Alpine burrow-sharing mammals and birds show similar population-level climate change risks

The authors use niche modelling and landscape genetic approaches to understand population-level climate change vulnerability for three alpine species. Their approach reveals similar population-level vulnerability for the studied keystone species and its two beneficiary species. Climate adaptation and dispersal can determine a species' response to climate change. However, quantifying how they can mitigate climate change risks remains a challenge. Here we combine ecological genomic, niche modelling and landscape genetic approaches to reveal similar population-level vulnerability for a keystone species and its two beneficiary species in an alpine grassland ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We use climate-associated genotypes to identify population-level adaptation and model maladaptation with and without dispersal and find that contemporary populations in southwestern ranges are the most vulnerable to climate change. This vulnerability cannot be mitigated by dispersal to more suitable niches because of climate maladaptation and landscape barriers. Overall, combined multiple climate change risk estimates in coevolving species can be used to improve climate change vulnerability assessments beyond what can be learned from a single species or modelling.