Land-Use Optimization Based on Ecological Security Pattern-A Case Study of Baicheng, Northeast China

In the current context of global urbanization and climate change, balancing ecological protection and economic development is a particular challenge in the optimal allocation of regional land use. Here, we propose a research framework for the optimal allocation of land use that considers the regional ecological security pattern (ESP) and allocates space for land-use activities to areas with low ecological risk. Taking Baicheng, China as our study area, ecological sources were first identified by integrating their ecological importance and landscape connectivity, and ecological corridors and functional zones were extracted using the minimum cumulative resistance difference and circuit theory. The ecological source areas were then taken as limiting factors, and four future scenarios were established for 2030 using the parcel-level land-use simulator (PLUS) model. The ecological corridors and functional zones served as areas having restricted ecological conditions, and the four future scenarios were coupled into the corresponding functional zones to optimize the land-use structure in 2030. The results indicate that under the coupled ESP-PLUS scenario, the spatial distribution and structure of land use in Baicheng balance the needs of ecological source area protection and economic development, resulting in greater sustainability. By 2030, the cultivated land area will steadily increase, but attention will also be given to the protection of ecological land (e.g., woodland and marshland), aligning with current policy planning demands. An analysis of the landscape indices for each future scenario found all scenarios to be effective in reducing negative changes in landscape patterns. These findings provide a novel perspective for the rational allocation of future land resources and the optimization of land-use structures.