Projections of the costs of medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles (2020-2040) and related economic issues

This study investigates the economic viability of various medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles compared to their diesel equivalents from 2020 to 2040. Using the ADVISOR simulation program, performance and energy consumption were evaluated under unique road, load, and design parameters, adjusted for projected technological advancements. The initial cost, total cost of ownership (TCO), and payback periods were calculated for each vehicle class over 5-year and 15-year periods. Notably, due to technology cost reductions, both battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles witness significant cost decreases between 2020 and 2030 and a slower reduction from 2030 to 2040. Given stable electricity prices, declining hydrogen prices, and slightly rising diesel prices, the TCO of electrified trucks typically undercuts diesel trucks before their purchase costs align. By 2025, most battery-electric trucks achieve TCO competitiveness, with payback periods reducing to <4 years by 2030. However, fuel cell vehicles face longer payback periods due to high hydrogen fuel costs. By 2030, if hydrogen cost falls below $7/kg, fuel cell trucks can achieve 3-5-year payback periods, and fuel cell buses can recoup costs within a year. By 2030, both battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks are expected to be competitively priced against diesel vehicles, assuming a continued decrease in battery and fuel cell costs coupled with moderate electricity and hydrogen prices. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these conclusions despite reasonable fluctuations in major cost variables.