The emergence of projected scaled patterns of extreme temperatures over Europe

被引：4

作者：

Ozturk, Tugba ^{[1
]}

Canbaz, Emine ^{[2
,3
]}

Bilgin, Basak ^{[3
,4
]}

Matte, Dominic ^{[5
]}

Kurnaz, M. Levent ^{[3
,6
]}

Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg ^{[7
,8
]}

机构：

[1] Isik Univ, Fac Engn & Nat Sci, Dept Phys, Istanbul, Turkiye

[2] Bogazici Univ, Dept Computat Sci & Engn, Istanbul, Turkiye

[3] Bogazici Univ, Ctr Climate Change & Policy Studies, Istanbul, Turkiye

[4] Bogazici Univ, Dept Sustainable Tourism Management, Istanbul, Turkiye

[5] Ouranos, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[6] Bogazici Univ, Dept Phys, Istanbul, Turkiye

[7] Univ Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Inst, Phys Ice Climate & Earth, Copenhagen, Denmark

[8] NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr AS, Bergen, Norway

来源：

FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE | 2023年 / 11卷

关键词：

pattern scaling; extreme temperatures; climate change; EURO-CORDEX; regional climate modeling; REGIONAL CLIMATE; MODEL DESCRIPTION; CORDEX; SCENARIOS; PRECIPITATION; SIMULATIONS; VARIABILITY; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.3389/feart.2023.1178461

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

This work investigates the scalability of extreme temperatures over the European domain with global warming levels. We have used the EURO-CORDEX ensemble of regional model simulations at 0.11 & DEG; resolution for daily minimum and maximum temperatures to analyze future changes in extreme weather daily events. Scaling with the annual mean global warming modeled by the driving GCM was applied to future extreme temperature indices changes. Regional changes in each index were scaled by corresponding global warming levels obtained from GCMs. This approach asserts that regional patterns of climate change and average global temperature change are linearly related. It can provide information regarding climate change for periods or emission scenarios when no simulations exist. According to the results, the annual minimum of the lowest temperature of the day (TNn) increases more than the annual maximum of the highest temperature of the day (TXx) for Europe. The multi-model mean of the changes in scaled patterns of extreme temperatures emerges early, around 2020, even before it becomes robust. Individual scaled patterns of TNn and TXx emerge from around 2040.

引用

页数：9

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