Optimizing sustainability of land resource utilization: a comprehensive analysis of practices in the Tarim Basin, China

被引：0
|
作者：
Song, Yifei [1 ,2 ]
Wu, Weicheng [1 ,2 ,3 ,4 ]
Zhang, Yanfei [1 ,2 ]
Zhu, Minqiang [1 ,2 ]
Ke, Xinxin [1 ,2 ]
Li, Yuan [1 ,2 ]
He, Yecheng [1 ,2 ]
Zhou, Cuimin [1 ,2 ]
Li, Wenjing [1 ,2 ]
Jing, Rong [1 ,2 ]
Song, Peixia [1 ,2 ]
Fu, Linqian [1 ,2 ]
Mao, Chunling [1 ,2 ]
Xie, Meng [1 ,2 ]
Song, Xiaoping [1 ,2 ]
Chen, Aiqing [1 ,2 ]
Li, Sicheng [1 ,2 ]
Li, Aohui [1 ,2 ]
Song, Yingxu [1 ,2 ]
机构：
[1] East China Univ Technol, Key Lab Digital Land & Resources, Nanchang, Peoples R China
[2] East China Univ Technol, Fac Earth Sci, Nanchang, Peoples R China
[3] East China Univ Technol, Key Lab Digital Land & Resources, Nanchang 330013, Jiangxi, Peoples R China
[4] East China Univ Technol, Fac Earth Sci, Nanchang 330013, Jiangxi, Peoples R China
来源：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY | 2024年 / 22卷 / 01期
关键词：
System dynamic (SD) model; indicator evaluation system (IES); multi-scenario simulation; sustainability of natural resource utilization; sustainable utilization degrees (SUD); SYSTEM DYNAMICS SIMULATION; WATER-RESOURCES; AGRICULTURAL LAND; CARRYING-CAPACITY; RIVER-BASIN; GLOBAL LAND; MANAGEMENT; ENVIRONMENT; INDICATORS; DEMAND;
D O I：
10.1080/14735903.2024.2335140
中图分类号：
S [农业科学];
学科分类号：
09 ;
摘要：
In the context of global warming and the increasing water shortage in dry areas, it is necessary to find a sustainable pathway for utilization of land resources (ULR) to solve these problems. For this purpose, using socioeconomic and environmental indicators from 2006 to 2018 and taking the Tarim Basin, China as an example, this study employed an integrated approach composed of the indicator evaluation system (IES) and the System Dynamics (SD) model to evaluate the possibility of sustainable ULR in the basin. During the simulation, three scenarios namely traditional development (TD), economic priority (EP) and harmonious development (HD) were designed, and different thresholds were set for each indicator of potential ULR in each sub-region to predict their future development status. The IES was established to derive the sustainable utilization degree (SUD) of ULR. The results show that the SUD in Tarim in 2030 is likely be 0.60 (TD), 0.62 (EP) and 0.68 (HD), indicating that only in HD scenario is it possible to find pathway to solve water scarcity problem and achieve sustainable ULR. This study provides a supportive idea for decision-making on sustainable ULR in Tarim and also an approach for similar sustainability assessment in other dry areas.
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页数：17
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