The impact of geopolitical risks on clean energy mineral prices: Does the Russia-Ukrainian war matter?

The transition to a low-carbon economy requires a steady and secure supply of minerals, which are susceptible to international tensions. In particular, the coronavirus pandemic in 2019 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 are two novel shocks affecting the clean energy market. Measuring the impact of increasing geopolitical risks due to these shocks on the clean energy sector is critical to the future of sustainable development. In this framework, this study uses wavelet coherence analysis and time-varying parameter VAR methods to examine the impact of geopolitical risks on the prices of aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, cobalt, and nickel from January 1992 to August 2022. The results show that mineral prices decreased during the COVID-19 period and increased after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The results also indicate that global geopolitical risk has a moderating effect on the prices of copper, aluminum, cobalt, and zinc, while geopolitical risk associated with Russia increases the prices of all minerals except cobalt. These results imply that the problems in Russia destabilize the prices of mineral commodities used in the renewable energy market, while the global geopolitical risks do not pose serious problems. Therefore, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict should be resolved in order to use clean energy minerals more effectively.