Tradeoffs and synergies between food security and forest cover in Brazilian drylands

Global food demand is expected to increase in the next decades, pushing agricultural expansion and deforestation. However, food production in agricultural lands is just one dimension of food security, to which forest goods and services also contribute. In this paper, we aimed to explore the relationship between forest cover and food security. We hypothesized that food security is improved by both human-made and green infrastructure combined. To test this relationship, we explore the relationships between forest cover and a multidimensional index of food security that included both socioeconomic and natural variables taken from Brazilian official databases for 1141 municipalities of the Brazilian Caatinga (a seasonally tropical dry forest). The index was formed by 12 principal components axes (12 PCs) and we found that financial poverty (PC 1) and economic inequality (PC 2) were the main determinants of food insecurity in Caatinga. We found that lowest food security values were found in two contrasting contexts: one is represented by poor and unequal municipalities with high forest cover while the other refers to poor and less unequal municipalities but with little forest cover. Municipalities with intermediate levels of forest cover had slightly higher food security, a consistent pattern across time (2006-2017). Win-win scenarios where both forest cover and food security increased with time were almost as common as lose-lose situations (25% and 22% respectively). This suggests a sort of balance between forests and human-made land uses and reinforces that natural capital contributes to food security. Zero-hunger is a main issue for sustainable development goals, and our results adds to the notion that both sustainable use of forests and socioeconomic improvements must coexist rather than being treated as antagonistic policies.