Prognostic analysis and risk stratification of lung adenocarcinoma undergoing EGFR-TKI therapy with time-serial CT-based radiomics signature

Objectives To evaluate the value of time-serial CT radiomics features in predicting progression-free survival (PFS) for lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients after epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) therapy. Materials and methods LUAD patients treated with EGFR-TKIs were retrospectively included from three independent institutes and divided into training and validation cohorts. Intratumoral and peritumoral features were extracted from time-serial non-contrast chest CT (including pre-therapy and first follow-up images); moreover, the percentage variation per unit time (day) was introduced to adjust for the different follow-up periods of each patient. Test-retest was performed to exclude irreproducible features, while the Boruta algorithm was used to select critical radiomics features. Radiomics signatures were constructed with random forest survival models in the training cohort and compared against baseline clinical characteristics through Cox regression and nonparametric testing of concordance indices (C-indices). Results The training cohort included 131 patients (74 women, 56.5%) from one institute and the validation cohort encompassed 41 patients (24 women, 58.5%) from two other institutes. The optimal signature contained 10 features and 7 were unit time feature variations. The comprehensive radiomics model outperformed the pre-therapy clinical characteristics in predicting PFS (training: 0.78, 95% CI: [0.72, 0.84] versus 0.55, 95% CI: [0.49, 0.62], p < 0.001; validation: 0.72, 95% CI: [0.60, 0.84] versus 0.54, 95% CI: [0.42, 0.66], p < 0.001). Conclusion Radiomics signature derived from time-serial CT images demonstrated optimal prognostic performance of disease progression. This dynamic imaging biomarker holds the promise of monitoring treatment response and achieving personalized management.