Decoupling for a greener future: a spatio-temporal analysis of CO2 emissions and economic growth

Climate change mitigation is a pressing global challenge that requires reducing CO2 emissions without hindering economic growth. Using an extended Kaya identity, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), and Tapio decoupling indicator, this paper investigates the spatio-temporal variations, drivers, and decoupling of CO2 emissions from economic growth in 150 countries from 1990 to 2019, considering regional disparities and income-based inequalities. The findings reveal increasing CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2019, with notable fluctuations in certain 5-year intervals. CO2 emission growth varied significantly by region, with countries like China, the USA, India, and Japan experiencing rapid increases. Economic growth emerged as the primary driver of CO2 emission growth, and its impact strengthened over time. Population growth also contributed significantly to CO2 emissions, particularly in middle- and low-income countries. The study identifies energy and carbon intensity as crucial mitigating factors that weaken CO2 emissions, offering hope for effective climate change mitigation. Furthermore, the degree of decoupling between economic growth and CO2 emissions varied among countries in the same region, with high-income countries demonstrating stronger decoupling compared to upper-middle-income countries, which accounted for 71% of global CO2 emission increase. These findings underline the imperative of accounting for income levels and regional differences in formulating CO2 emission mitigation strategies. Also, the study emphasizes the pressing necessity for cohesive global coordination to facilitate the transition toward a low-carbon economy. Such collaborative endeavors are paramount in our collective pursuit to combat climate change effectively, safeguarding the well-being and sustenance of our planet for future generations. As policymakers, it is imperative to integrate these insights into decision-making processes to chart a sustainable and resilient course forward.